Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Jackpot

In the questions, most will choose the second option, with some kind of hope of hitting the jackpot, but however, when counted with probability, the expected outcome is the same for both options.

Men are never rational are they? Very willing to take their risks when there is a perceived return (often when calculated with expected return, is not higher than not taking the risk at all). This goes for the stock market, and all sorts of speculation like buying toto, and maybe even, going after a girl?!? haha..

well well, or it simply shows that men are just bad in mathematics. hahaha... (that was my point to defend mankind from the person that showed me this article)

In Nietzsche's book Beyond Good and Evil, he said that "Madness is something rare in individuals -- but in groups, parties, peoples, ages it is the rule" However, have you ever realize that alot of times, when you are left to make your own decision, you look for some affirmation of your choice? Easily swayed, that is why madness exists when there is groupthink, as Barton Biggs mention in his book Hedgehogging, groupthink is groupstink. But i digressed.

"Therefore everyone who hears these words of mine and puts them into practice is like a wise man who built his house on the rock. The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house; yet it did not fall, because it had its foundation on the rock." (Matthew 7:24,25). The world celebrates that you have a mind of your own, you have your conviction in making decisions, your own perspective, going after your own passion. Maybe afterall, we fall unconsciously under the spell of groupthink, sub-culture, follow the crowd. If anyone would hear the words of what is written in the Book, and followed, one would have escaped the groupthink trap.

Rain comes down on the top, wind blows lateral, and streams rose from below. He said that if those words are being put into practice, one will be able to stand against adversaries from all sides and not sway.

1 comment:

chaiyen said...

actually i will take A in most cases. unless of course if it is 10 times more. it is worth the risk.